In the past, Peter Kelle's tire dealership in BatonRouge sold an average of I ,000 radials each year. In the past2 years, 200 and 250, respectively, were sold in fa ll, 350 and 300 inCHAPTER 4 FORECASTING 149winter, ISO and 165 in spring, and 300 and 285 in summer. With amajor expansion planned, Kelle projects sales next year to increaseto I ,200 radials. What will be the demand during each season? ~(Mylab Operations Management also includes a shorter (brief)version of this problem.)
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In the past, Peter Kelle's tire dealership in Baton Rouge sold an average of I ,000 radials each year. In the past 2 years, 200 and 250, respectively, were sold in fa ll, 350 and 300 in CHAPTER 4 winter, ISO and 165 in spring, and 300 and 285 in summer. With a major expansion planned, Kelle projects sales next year to increase to I ,200 radials. What will be the demand during each season? ~ (Mylab Operations Management also includes a shorter (brief) version of this problem.) |
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- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.
- In the past, Peter Kelle's tire dealership in Baton Rouge sold an average of 1,200 radials each year. In the past 2 years, 240 and 260, respectively were sold in fall, 350 and 310 in winter, 140 and 165 in spring, and 300 and 635 in summer. With a major expansion planned, Kelle projects sales next year to increase to 1,200 radials. Based on next year's projected sales, what is the demand for summer going to be (enter your responses as whole numbers): 468 250 330 153Explain how is the moving avarages l approach equivalent to exponential smoothing ?12.2 The manager of the I-85 Carpet outlet needs to be able to forecast accurately the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpets from one of the outlets many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8 months. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1000 yd) 5 10 6 8 14 10 9 12 a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.
- 12.2. The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be able to forecast accurately the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpets from one of the outlet's many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past eight months: Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1000 yd) Month ALE ni bno 1 10 6. 4. 8 14 6. 10 7 9. 8. 12 a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. b. Compute a weighted three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of .55, .33, and .12 to the months in sequence, starting with the most recent month. c. Compare the two forecasts using MAD. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? 3.4. In the past, Peter Kelle's tire dealership in Baton Rouge sold an average of 1,100 radials each year. In the past 2 years, 220 and 250, respectively were sold in fall, 360 and 300 in winter, 150 and 160 in spring, and 320 and 440 in summer. With a major expansion planned, Kelle projects sales next year to increase to 1,300 radials. Part 2 Based on next year's projected sales, the demand for each season is going to be (enter your responses as whole numbers): Season Demand Fall __________In the past Peter Kelles tire dealership in Baton Rouge sold an average of 1,100 radial each year. In the past 2 years, 220 and 240 respectively were sold in fall, 360 and 320 in winter and 140 and 160 in spring and 300 and 460 in summer. with a major expansion planned, Kelle projects sales next year to increase 1300 radials. Based on next years projected sales the demand for each season is going to be (enter your response as whole numbers) season demand fall [___]
- Problem 4- do both a three period moving average and an exponential smoothing forecast with an alpha of .2. Calculate the MAD and MPE for each. Months Actuals 1 400 2. 350 3 325 4. 300 300 6. 285 7. 29012.2. The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be able to forecast accurately the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpets from one of the outlet’s many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past eight months: Month Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1000 yd)1 52 103 64 85 146 107 98 12 a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. b. Compute a weighted three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of .55, .33, and .12 to the months in sequence, starting with…Café Michigan's manager, Gary Stark, suspects that demand for mocha latte coffees depends on the price being charged. Based on historical observations, Gary has gathered the following data, which show the numbers of these coffees sold over six different price values: Price Number Sold $2.70 760 $3.50 510 $2.00 980 $4.20 250 $3.10 320 $4.05 480 a. Using these data, how many mocha latte coffees would be forecast to be sold according to simple linear regression if the price per cup were $2.80? [Select] What is the MAD? [Select] c. What is the Coefficient of Determination? [Select] [Select] 9 and what does that tell you?