In class we have learned that, given an indirect utility function u(w), there are two relevant measures u" (w) of risk aversion, namely absolute risk aversion, A(w) = and relative risk aversion, R(w) u' (w)' A(w)w. The following questions relate to risk aversion in general, and relationships around these two measures. 1. Utility function u(w) is risk averse if it is concave. Show mathematically that the set of all risk averse functions is a convex set. 2. It is often argued that absolute risk aversion should satisfy DARA (i.e. absolute risk aversion is decreasing in w). Show that, (i) a neccesary but not sufficient condition for DARA is that v(w) = -u'(w) is concave, and (ii) that a necessary and sufficient condition for DARA is that v(w) = -u' (w) is more risk averse than u(w). TC 1 = LORDA 1
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- When the second order derivative of a function is greater than zero than the agent is risk lover. question; Asses the risk attitude of an agent represented by the expected utility function u(x)= 2x2-5. However my course material writes that this agent is risk neutral because it is affine. My question is that whys is this so despite the fact that the second order derivative is '4' which is >0. Kindly explain this to me with complete steps.1. A standard model of choice under risk is Expected Utility Theory (EUT) in which preferences over lotteries that pay monetary prizes (x₁, x2, ..., xs) with probabilities (P1, P2, ..., Ps) with Eps = 1 are represented by the function L S (a) What does it mean to say that a function represents the consumer's prefer- ences? Σpsu(xs) Choice 1 8=1 (b) State and briefly comment on the axioms required for the EUT representation. (c) Consider the following experiment of decision making under risk in which sub- jects are asked which lottery they prefer in each of the following two choices: Lottery B 0 with prob. 0.01 10 with prob. 0.89 50 with prob. 0.10 Lottery D Choice 2 Lottery A 0 with prob. 0 10 with prob. 1 50 with prob. 0 Lottery C 0 with prob. 0.90 10 with prob. 0 50 with prob. 0.10 Suppose that the modal responses are Lottery A in Choice 1 and Lottery D in Choice 2. Assume that utility of zero is equal to zero and illustrate why it is not possible to reconcile these experimental…7. Principal-Agent II A risk-neutral principal can hire a risk-averse agent to undertake a project. There are two possible outcomes for the gross profit of the principal, TL There are also two possible effort levels that the agent can exert, e = 0 or 1; if e = 0, the probability of TH is only 1/3, but if e = 1, the probability of TH increases to 2/3. 20 and TH = 50. The agent's utility from receiving a wage wand exerting effort e is Vw – e, and the agent has a reservation utility of ū = 2. (a) Assume that effort is observable. What wage will the principal offer if she wants to induce low effort? What wage will she offer if she wants to induce high effort? What contract is optimal for the principal?
- You and a coworker are assigned a team project on which your likelihood or a promotion will be decidedon. It is now the night before the project is due and neither has yet to start it. You both want toreceive a promotion next year, but you both also want to go to your company’s holiday party that night.Each of you wants to maximize his or her own happiness (likelihood of a promotion and mingling withyour colleagues “on the company’s dime”). If you both work, you deliver an outstanding presentation.If you both go to the party, your presentation is mediocre. If one parties and the other works, yourpresentation is above average. Partying increases happiness by 25 units. Working on the project addszero units to happiness. Happiness is also affected by your chance of a promotion, which is depends on howgood your project is. An outstanding presentation gives 40 units of happiness to each of you; an aboveaverage presentation gives 30 units of happiness; a mediocre presentation gives 10 units…3. Further questions Now, imagine that Port Chester decides to crack down on motorists who park illegally by increasing the number of officers issuing parking tickets (thus, raising the probability of a ticket). If the cost of a ticket is $100, and the opportunity cost for the average driver of searching for parking is $12, which of the following probabilities would make the average person stop parking illegally? Assume that people will not park illegally if the expected value of doing so is negative. Check all that apply. 13% 21% 9% 10% Alternatively, the city could hold the number of officers constant and discourage parking violations by raising the fine for illegal parking. Suppose the average probability of getting caught for parking illegally is currently 10% citywide, and the average opportunity cost of parking is, again, $12. The fine that would make the average person indifferent between searching for parking and parking illegally is 5 park illegally if the expected value of…1. Individual Problems 18-1 You hold an oral, or English, auction among three bidders. You estimate that each bidder has a value of either $88 or $110 for the item, and you attach probabilities to each value of 50%. The winning bidder must pay a price equal to the second highest bid. The following table lists the eight possible combinations for bidder values. Each combination is equally likely to occur. On the following table, indicate the price paid by the winning bidder. Combination Number Bidder 1 Value Bidder 2 Value Bidder 3 Value Probability Price ($) ($) ($) 1 $88 $88 $88 0.125 2 $88 $88 $110 0.125 3 $88 $110 $88 0.125 4 $88 $110 $110 0.125 5 $110 $88 $88 0.125 6 $110 $88 $110 0.125 7 $110 $110 $88 0.125 8 $110 $110 $110 0.125 The expected price paid is . Suppose that bidders 1 and 2 collude and would be willing to bid up to a maximum of their values, but the two bidders…
- a Suppose you are given a choice between thefollowing options:A1: Win $30 for sureA2: 80% chance of winning $45 and 20% chance ofA2: winning nothing B1: 25% chance of winning $30B2: 20% chance of winning $45Most people prefer A1 to A2 and B2 to B1. Explainwhy this behavior violates the assumption that decisionmakers maximize expected utility.b Now suppose you play the following game: You havea 75% chance of winning nothing and a 25% chance ofplaying the second stage of the game. If you reach thesecond stage, you have a choice of two options (C1 andC2), but your choice must be made now, before youreach the second stage.C1: Win $30 for sureC2: 80% chance of winning $45 13.5 Bayes’ Rule and Decision Trees 767Most people choose C1 over C2 and B2 to B1 (from part(a)). Explain why this again violates the assumption ofexpected utility maximization. Tversky and Kahneman(1981) speculate that most people are attracted to thesure $30 in the second stage, even though the secondstage may never be…2. Suppose you asked the following question to Person A and Person B: "How much are you willing to pay to avoid the following fair gamble – win $100 with 50% chance and lose $100 with 50% chance (thus, Variance is equal to 10,000)?" A's answer- $2 B's answer-$10 Assuming that A and B have CARA utility function, a) compute their absolute risk aversion coefficients (approximately) and b) compute their risk premiums for avoiding the following new gamble - win $500 with 50% chance and lose $500 with 50% chance.‘‘Risk-averse people should only be averse to big gambles with a lot of money at stake. They should jump on any small gamble that is unfair in their favor.’’ Explain why this statement makes sense. Use a utility of income graph like Figure 4.1 to illustrate the statement. For a challenge, demonstrate the statement using a two-state graph like Figure 4.6.
- 5. Consider a weather forecaster who is paid based on her performance. Each day, she forecasts the probability q = [0, 1] that it will rain the following day. She is given a bonus that depends on her forecast and whether it rains. Assume that the forecaster knows the true probability, p, and when choosing her forecast, q, cares only about maximizing her bonus for that day (in particular, she may lie about the probability if doing so increases her pay). (a) Suppose the bonus is equal to the percentage the forecast assigns to what actually happens. For example, if the forecaster says there is a 72% chance of rain (i.e. q = 0.72), then she is paid $72 if it rains and $28 if it does not rain. If the forecaster is a risk neutral expected utility maximizer, what forecast will she make (as a function of p)? (b) Suppose instead that the bonus is equal to 100(1 − (1 − q)2) dollars if it rains and 100(1-q²) dollars if it does not rain. For example, if the forecaster says there is an 80% chance…5. Consider a decision-maker who expects to have a car accident with chance ; if this occurs, he will incur $L in damages. He can purchase as much auto insurance, q, as he likes, at a price of p per dollar of coverage: this means that if he pays pq upfront (as the insurance premium), he'll receive a payment of q from the insurance company if an accident occurs. (a) Write out his expected utility from purchasing insurance level q, assuming a utility-of- wealth function u(w) and initial wealth wo. 1 (b) Show that the optimal level of insurance, q, solves u' (wo - L + (1 - p)q)) u' (wo - pq) = p(1 - π) T(1-P) (c) Now assume that u(w) 1 - e-aw, where a > 0 (this is known as a "CARA", or "constant absolute risk aversion", utility function; a parametrizes risk aversion). Solve explicitly for the optimal insurance, and show that it does not depend on wealth.18. Choose the correct answer from the given below.