Forecast February by: Arithmetic Average Weighted moving average, weights are 8 and 2. Which method is better based on MFE PERIOD Demand Sept. 60 Oct. 50 Nov. 60 Dec. 70 Jan. 60 Feb. ?
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- Question 1 ) The monthiy sales Of yamizí Battery company are asfollows:- Month Jales 2000 2100 1500 1400 1300 Calcuiate fore cost sales for June using each of the fo llowing method: - i) Naive Method 1M 3 Month Simple moving averoger Ti) Exponentral smoothing using an a =0:3 cand may forecast of 1600 units.Year Bushels Simple Exp. Smoothing Forecast Trend Factor Adjusted Exp. Smoothing Forecast 1 48 48 0 48 2 52 48 0 48 3 54 49 .30 49.30 4 56 5 66 6 62 What is the simple exponential smoothing forecast for years 4-6? And also what is adjsted exponential smoothing forecast for these years 4-6?35. The Mr. Meadows Cookie Company can obtain accurate forecasts for 12 months based on firm orders. These forecasts and the number of workdays per month are as follows: Demand Forecast Month (in thousands of cookies) Workdays 1 850 26 2 1,260 24 3 510 20 4 980 18 770 22 850 23 7 14 1,050 1,550 1,350 1,000 970 680 21 9. 23 10 24 11 21 12 13 During a 46-day period when there were 120 workers, the firm produced 1,700,000 cookies. Assume that there are 100 workers employed at the beginning of month 1 and zero starting inventory. a. Find the minimum constant workforce needed to meet monthly demand. b. Assume cz= $0.10 per cookie per month, cH= $100, and cp = $200. Add columns that give the cumulative on-hand inventory and inventory cost. What is the total cost of the constant workforce plan? c. Solve for the optimal plan using linear programming. Compare your solution to b.
- Given November actual demand of 61, November forecast of 58, and an alpha of 0.4, November trend value +1.03, Beta of 0.3 what would the forecast including trend (FIT) for the December period be using exponential smoothing model 2? Select one: a. 62.03 b. cannot be found c. 68.76 d. 65.72Determine the Forecast Error for the data below using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) formula. Month Demand Forecast 16 205 210 17 197 175 18 230 210 19 240 228 20 252 220 Question 11 options: a) 15.8 b) 15.7 c) 19.1 d) 16.7Month Demand Forecast 1 40 2 50 3 42 4 55 5 41 50 6 42 7 Sum Mean Error Abs Error Bias MAD When using exponential smoothing forecast (ESF) with an alpha of .3: 1. What is the forecast for month 6? 2. What is the forecast error for month 6?
- B: Find forecasting error from the following table by using Tracking Signal. Period Actual Demand Forecasted Demand 1 8 10 2 10 10 3 7 10 4 13 10 5 9 10 6 12 10Month Demand Forecast Error Abs Error 1 43 2 52 3 44 4 57 5 43 6 48 7 Sum Mean Bias MAD When using a 4 period moving average forecast (MAF): 1. What is the forecast for month 6? 2. What is the forecast error for month 6?Period Actual Forecast Error Abs Error 1 35 40 -5 5 2 38 37 1 1 3 45 41 4 4 4 39 43 -4 4 5 44 42 2 2 6 49 45 4 4 7 46 48 -2 2 8 46 48 -2 2 9 52 47 5 5 10 57 52 5 5 Sum 451 443 8 34 Average 45.1 44.3 0.8 3.4 Calculate the Tracking Signal to two decimal places.
- Problem 4- do both a three period moving average and an exponential smoothing forecast with an alpha of .2. Calculate the MAD and MPE for each. Months Actuals 1 400 2. 350 3 325 4. 300 300 6. 285 7. 290A weighted moving average using wl = 0.60; w2 = 0.30 and w3 = 0.10 Calculate MAD, MSE for each method and suggest the most appropriate method. C.The following gives the number of pints of type Bblood used a t Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks: a) Forecast the dema nd for the week of October 12 using a3-week moving average.b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of .I , .3,and .6, using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand forthe week of October 12.c) Compute the forecast for the week of October 12using exponentialsmoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and a = .2