Expert's probability that team A beats team B Expert's years of experience studying football games 1 0.55 9 2 0.50 10 3 0.80 2 4 0.45 8 5 0.45 7 a) Discuss what is subjective probability and ho
The table below reports the subjective predictions on the probability that football team A will beat football
team B at the next match.
| Expert number | Expert's probability that team A beats team B | Expert's years of experience studying football games |
| 1 | 0.55 | 9 |
| 2 | 0.50 | 10 |
| 3 | 0.80 | 2 |
| 4 | 0.45 | 8 |
| 5 | 0.45 | 7 |
a) Discuss what is subjective probability and how it differs from classical probability and from
relative frequency probability (hint: also discuss the variability of subjective vs. classical and relative
frequency probability, with relation to this specific example).
b)Make a scatterplot of the data above, where Y = Expert’s probability that team A beats team
B and X = Expert’s years of experience studying football games.
c) Compute the
years of experience studying football games (consider this as a sample of all available experts).
d)Interpret the meaning of the correlation (Hint: pay particular attention to the scatterplot).
e) Discuss what we mean with the term “outliers” and why it is important to identify whether
our data include outliers.
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