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- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 What is the expected value of the market research information?…
- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. Use expected value to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.Please answer the question Minimum 150 words How is it possible to measure the risk and consider the tradeoff risk return? (Time value of money)The demand for a product of Carolina Industries varies greatly from month to month. The probability distribution in the following table, based on the past two years of data, shows the company's monthly demand. Unit Demand Probability 300 400 500 600 0.20 0.30 0.35 0.15 (a) If the company bases monthly orders on the expected value of the monthly demand, what should Carolina's monthly order quantity be for this product? (b) Assume that each unit demanded generates $70 in revenue and that each unit ordered costs $50. How much will the company gain or lose in a month (indoitars) if it places an order based on your answer to part (a) and the actual demand for the item is 300 units?
- Annual savings due to an energy efficiency project have a most likely value of $30,000. The high estimate of $40,000 has a probability of .25, and the low estimate of $20,000 has a probability of .35. (a) What is the expected value for the annual savings? (b) What types of tax incentives are available to firms for green projects?Agamble based on a fair coin toss which pays $6.65 if the coin lands heads and $9.85 if the coin lands tails. (fair coin toss i.e. probability of heads is 50% = probability of tails is 50%) EV $8.25 E[U(w)) UJEV] >_U(EV) Low EU = U(EV) Neutral EU =_U(EV) Neutral u(w) w" 624.81 $ 561.51 u(w) 125+w 136.25 $ 136.25 u(w) Sin(w) 10.50 $ 10.50 Arisk agent, whose utility is given by U(w) = 5In(W) and initial wealth is $5,000 is faced with a potential loss of $3,800 with a probability of p=0.17. What is the maximum premium they would be willing to pay to protect themselves against this loss? risk appetite (wייט EV intial wealth EU 41.37 5,000 U(w-y) = E[U(w)] 5In(5,000-y)=B17 find y y= $ 1,077.13 If you are given the opportunity to buy insurance for $500 alt y= would you take the insurance? Utility functions w>0 u(w) w-9w u(w) 5In(w) u'(w) u'(w) u"(w) u"(w) A'(w) :>,,,,<=0 show your work A(w) Alw) A'(w) A'(w) R(w) R(w) R'(w) R'(w)VD A national sports network offers a community a chance to join a pro team The winner of the tryouts takes home the prize but the others (losers) gain nothing. There are 10 persons in the village that could tryout. Each person will decide to join the game if the expected value of the game is higher than $40,000. This type of problem is often called “the winner takes all.” Hint: complete the table first. Expected value of tryout = (Prize of the tryout) / (number of persons trying out) = expected prize Income to the community = prize money + income of all persons who did not try out Number of contestants prize if tryout is held Income to a person if they stay at home Expected prize for a person Income of persons who did not tryout Total Income to the community 0 $0.00 $40,000 $0 $400,000 $400,000 1 $180,000.00 $40,000 $180,000 $360,000 $540,000 2 $190,000.00 $40,000 3 $205,000.00 $40,000 4…
- Problem 1 Synergy Company sells co-amoxiclav antibiotic. The probability distribution of the demand for co-amoxiclav antibiotic is as follows: Estimated Sales in Units 120 units 210 units 300 units Probability 0.12 0.18 0.22 The estimated demand for co-amoxiclav antibiotics this coming month using the expected value approach is 1. How much is Expected Value? S =McBurger Inc., wants to redesign its kitchen to improve productivity and quality. Three designs,called B1, B2, and B3, are under consideration. No matter which design is used, daily demandfor sandwiches at a typical McBurger restaurant is 500 sandwiches. A sandwich costs 500 baizato produce. Non-defective sandwich sell, on average, for 1 OR per sandwich. Defective sandwichcannot be sold and are scrapped. The goal is to chose a design that maximizes the expected profitat a typical restaurant over a period of one year (365 days). Designs B1, B2, and B3 cost 40,0003OR, 50,000 OR, and 70,000 OR, respectively. Under design B1, there is 0.8 chance that 90 outof each 100 sandwiches are non-defective and 0.2 chance that 70 out of each 100 sandwiches arenon-defective. Under design B2, there is 0.85 chance that 90 out of each 100 sandwiches are nondefective and 0.15 chance that 75 out of each 100 sandwiches are non-defective. Under design B3,there is 0.9 chance that 95 out of each 100 sandwiches…The owner of a ski resort is considering installing a new ski lift that will cost $900,000. Expenses for operating andmaintaining the lift are estimated to be $1,500 per day when operating. The U.S. Weather Service estimates thatthere is a 60% probability of 80 days of skiing weather per year, a 30% probability of 100 days per year, and a 10% probability of 120 days per year. The operators of the resort estimate that during the first 80 days of adequate snow in a season, an average of 500 people will use the lift each day, at a fee of $10 each. If 20 additional days are available, the lift will be used by only 400 people per day during the extra period; and if 20 more days of skiing are available, only 300 people per day will use the lift during those days. The owners wish to recover any invested capital within five years and want at least a 25% per year rate of return before taxes. Based on a before-tax analysis, should the lift be installed?