A heavy truck parts maker is able to tender on a pre-production study contract of a new type of truck ventilator unit worth $25,000 net profit if it wins the contract. Tendering costs would be about $2,000. The chances of winning the contract are 50 percent. If the company wins the contract, it must decide on the level of marketing it should make to increase its chances of getting further production contract worth $55,000 net profit. Promotion at a high level costs $18,000 with a resulting probability of winning the contract of 0.8. At medium level promotion, it costs $12,000 with a probability of 75 percent and at a low level, it costs $8,000 with a probability of 60 percent. Should the initial study contract be lost, the company can still bid on the production contract at an additional tender cost of $6,000. The probability of winning the production contract from this stage is 30 percent. a) Draw a decision tree to show the relationship between the various options which arise as the problem unfolds. Show also the cost of the various decisions, the probabilities of winning or losing the tender, the optimal profit path on the decision tree. b) Draw a decision tree for the analysis of each decision and chance node and give the final profit from this contract for production
A heavy truck parts maker is able to tender on a pre-production study contract of a new type of truck ventilator unit worth $25,000 net profit if it wins the contract. Tendering costs would be about $2,000. The chances of winning the contract are 50 percent. If the company wins the contract, it must decide on the level of marketing it should make to increase its chances of getting further production contract worth $55,000 net profit. Promotion at a high level costs $18,000 with a resulting probability of winning the contract of 0.8. At medium level promotion, it costs $12,000 with a probability of 75 percent and at a low level, it costs $8,000 with a probability of 60 percent. Should the initial study contract be lost, the company can still bid on the production contract at an additional tender cost of $6,000. The probability of winning the production contract from this stage is 30 percent.
a) Draw a decision tree to show the relationship between the various options which arise as the problem unfolds. Show also the cost of the various decisions, the probabilities of winning or losing the tender, the optimal profit path on the decision tree.
b) Draw a decision tree for the analysis of each decision and chance node and give the final profit from this contract for production
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