A company is considering whether to develop and market a particular product. There is 40% probability that the research and development department will come up with a viable product, and a 60% probability that the product will be scrapped. The cost of undertaking the research and development is 200 000.
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A company is considering whether to develop and market a particular product. There is 40% probability that the research and development department will come up with a viable product, and a 60% probability that the product will be scrapped. The cost of undertaking the research and development is 200 000.
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- The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a newfertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful,the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful,the company will lose $35,000. In the past, similar productshave been successful 60% of the time. At a cost of $5,000,the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If thetest result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that thefertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable,there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will besuccessful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test resultand a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. DetermineNitro’s optimal strategy. Also find EVSI and EVPI.A company has prepared a design for a new product which it can either sale for K100 000 or develop into a marketable product at a cost of K150 000. The chances of success if the product is developed are 0.7. If this attempt fails the design can only be sold at K20 000. If the attempt succeeds the business has the choice of either selling the design and developed product for K180 000 or marketing the product. If the product is marketed then there is a 0.6 probability that the product will generate a cash inflow of K800 000 and a 0.4 probability that it will generate a cash outflow of (K100 000). Both figures exclude items previously mentioned Supposing there is a small change in the estimated probabilities of success and failure in the product development phase from 0.7: 0.3 to 0.6: 0.4 what would be the change in expected value?GCC Ltd. owns GCC motors which is considering the introduction of a new electric car engine for 4- seater cars. There is a 50% chance that the engine will be successful in the market. The company may consider trying out the product in a test market, for £5 million, before deciding to introduce the car engine. Experience shows that ultimately successful products are approved in the test market 80 percent of the time, whereas ultimately unsuccessful products are approved in the test market only 25 percent of the time. If the product is successful, the net profit to the company will be £40 million; if unsuccessful, the net loss will be £15 million. Managerial report: Perform a decision analysis of the problem facing GCC and prepare a report that summarises your findings, recommendations and critical appraisal. Include the following information in your report • a decision tree that shows the logical sequence of the decision problem and all formulas and detailed calculations involved…
- Letz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. The company intends to build a new plant. Letz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey for which the results will either be positive or negative. The information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Letz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful. Using figure 1 – explain to your client (Letz) what the above decision tree shows. You are required to show all working.Problem 1) The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a new fertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful, then the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful, the company will lose $50,000. In that past, similar products have been successful 55% of the time. At a cost of $10,000, the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If the test result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable, there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test result and a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. a) Construct a decision tree to determine Nitro's optimal strategy b) Find the EVSI and EVPI I need solution of part (b) onlyProblem 1) The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a new fertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful, then the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful, the company will lose $50,000. In that past, similar products have been successful 55% of the time. At a cost of $10,000, the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If the test result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable, there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test result and a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. a) Construct a decision tree to determine Nitro's optimal strategy b) Find the EVSI and EVPI Note I need solution of part A only
- A certain reagent is created to test for an infectious disease. The test has anaccuracy rate of p = 90%, and the accuracy does not depend on whether or not thepatient is actually infected. a. If four people are tested for the disease, what is the probability that at leastthree of them receive accurate test results? b. In an area where q = 5% of people are infected, a man’s test result ispositive. What is probability that it is a false positive (which means that he is notinfected but the test is positive due to inaccuracy)? *please solve for a-b, type or neatly write your answers on paper, NO EXCEL* thank you !1. Which of the following Risk Management Processes covers the determination of the likelihood and consequence of risks identified on the effective and efficient pursuit of business activities? Group of answer choices Risk mitigation and avoidance Risk monitoring None of the choices Risk identification Risk qualification and prioritizationThe company is considering whether or not they should drill the land. The cost of drilling is estimated to be $4 million. The company believes there are three possible findings after drilling the land: dry, wet and gushing. The probabilities for these outcomes are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. If the land is found to be dry, it obviously offers no profit. If the land is wet, it brings a potential profit of $10 million. If gushing, the potential profit from the land is $30 million. Answer the following questions, Q1 and Q2. Q1: Draw a decision tree to show the decision for this company based on the EMV criterion. Nodes and arcs are provided below and you can make more of them by using "copy" and "paste" Q2: The company has the option of using some new technology and equipment combined with seismic survey data to learn the presence of oil (dry, wet or gushing) before drilling the land. However, it requires $2.3 million investment for the technology, equipment, and required analysis. Is…
- The risks that the consequences of them are acceptable and no extra costs should be incurred to reduce hazard probability are categorized as: Select one: a. Intolerable b. Intolerable, Acceptable, and As low as reasonably practical (ALARP) c. As low as reasonably practical(ALARP) d. AcceptableThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.Companies can use the expected value method to estimate variable consideration when... The contracts has two possible outcomes A company has a large number of contracts with similar characteristics A company can use the most likely amount in a range of possible outcomes A company has a smaller number of contracts with similar characteristics