preview

The Causes and Consequences of the Russian Crisis of 1998 Essay

Best Essays

The causes and consequences of the Russian crisis of 1998

The period 1995 to mid-1997 was boom time for Russia’s financial markets. The value of the Russian bonds and stocks soared, with the participation of foreigners in these asset markets increasing rapidly. International investors’ optimism about the country’s future was lifted by stabilization policy that followed the advice of Western institutions.

Russian crisis of 1998 were caused due to a number of factors, the investor risk aversion by foreign players, fall in oil prices put the ruble under a drastic downward trend. Russia at that point in time was heavily dependent on capital inflows which was eroded due to the external shocks e.g Asian financial crisis etc country …show more content…

Devaluation was postponed through heavy international support. The ultimate crisis in August 1998 resulted in a partial government default and steep devaluation

Central Bank of Russia (CBR) introduced an exchange rate target band. The regime was mutating during the following three years, featuring various corridor ranges, levels and crawls. Also, from 1996 the CBR targeted an “inner band” with a small range and a short announcement horizon, in order to smooth the day-to-day fluctuations of the ruble. Yet the principal regime remained in place until August 1998. It slowed ruble depreciation to a 9.7% average during target regime which compares impressively to the 138% during the 2 years prior to it. Cash revenues declined, on the federal level they fell from 12.9% of GDP in 1995 to just 10.7% in 1998. Enlarged government revenues declined from 33% to 31.7%. Tax collection problems were mostly structural and tedious to ease. Tax laws were complicated, inefficient and inconsistent.

Ruble was under pressure: Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 554points (all time highest drop), worsening of the Asian crisis around the same period lead the international investment community to shy away. Russian external bonds soared from 540 basis points in the 3rd qtr 1997 to 690 basis points in the 1st qtr 1998. Finally, world oil prices collapsed by 35% in just three

Get Access