Suppose Firm B is selling 1-year insurance contracts for houses. Suppose Firm B's customers are divided into three categories with different probabilities of needing a payment. First category will ask for a payment of 500000 with probability 0.10, the second category will ask for a payment of 250000 with probability 0.15 and the third category will ask for a payment of 100000 with probability 0.2 a. Calculate Firm B's expected payment for the year. Suppose Firm B has 120 customers in the first category, 230 in the second category and 405 in the third category. b. Calculate individual premium if Firm B charges the same amount to all its customers.
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- 12. Over the last decade, robotic-drone a research and development company has researched in new drone technology for home delivery. Their sales department considers that they could sell as many as $90 million per year with a probability of 20%. With a most likely value of $76 million with a probability of 45% and a lowest value of $50 million. a. Determine the expected value of their sales. b. The sales department estimates that they could maintain this sales rhythm for 4 years with a probability of 67% or that this sales rhythm could be maintained for 8 years. Determine the Expected Value for the PW if the company considers a yearly interest rate of 10%Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions, 1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utilityYou're the manager of global opportunities for a U.S. manufacturer that is considering expanding sales into Asia. Your ma the market potential in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore as described in the following table: Success Level Big Mediocre Failure Malaysia Probability 0.5 0.3 0.2 Units 500,000 300,000 0 Philippines Probability 0.2 0.7 0.1 Units 1,400,000 700,000 0 Singapore Probability Units 0.3 0.3 0.4 1,200,000 384,000 0 The product sells for $10, and each unit has a constant marginal cost of $8. Assume that the (fixed) cost of entering the market (regardless of which market you select) is $250,000. In the following table, enter the expected number of units sold, and the expected profit, from entering each market. Market Malaysia Expected Number of Units Sold Expected Profit Philippines Singapore $ If you were to enter one of the previously described markets, which one would you enter in order to earn the highest expected profit?
- r.edu/courses/97574/quizzes/357143/take ch results - yaz... Question 23 Consider the following probability distribution. xi 0 M Question Mode: M... 1 2 3 O 2.5 0.9 O 1.9 P(X = xi) O 1.5 0.1 The expected value is 0.2 0.4 0.3 Question 24 An analyst has constructed the following probability distribution for firm X's predicted return for upcoming year.Determine whether or not to stock a large supply of steel. There is uncertainty in the price of steel. Based on past history the following data are available Price (future) Prob (Price) PW if stocked PW if not stocked High 0.3 100000 0 Medium 0.5 -10000 0 Low 0.2 -50000 0 What is the probability that stocking steel will result in a negative present worth (PW)?2 Consider the two investments listed below with possible outcomes and probabilities: INVESTMENT (in $1000) SAFE RISKY INVESTMENT AMOUNTⓇ 40+ 40+ GOOD SCENARIO OUTCOME 45+ 80+ AVERAGE+ SCENARIO PROB OUTCOME 0.40* 0.40€ 42+ 45+ BAD+ SCENARIO PROB OUTCOME PROB 0.20 35+ 0.20 10+ 0.40€ 0.40+ b) a) Suppose I have utility function U(*) = (x)2. What is the expected utility from each investment? Which investment will I choose, if any? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition. c) What is the value of the risk premium for the SAFE investment? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition. d) What is the value of the risk premium for the RISKY investment? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition.< +
- Please explain in detail about expected utility to get a positive upvote. An individual has a utility function U = W¼, where W is her total wealth. She has one safe asset worth Rs 5,000, and another risky asset whose value can be either Rs 5,000 or Rs 1,400 with equal probabilities. What is her expected utility? (a) Rs 11,400 (b) Rs 100 aw lo boeoqmoo vmonoos to on g cubire cou s o iva alagos ad a adWnooni lanou lo OAuti (c) Rs 2,580 (d) Rs 90EXTRA RISK PROBLEMS Sanck A Sk Expected Retun Standand Deviatim 12 75 16 Comelation cnefficieit wth the Market Comelation coeficient with Stock B Risk fre e 2% Expected etu on the Market 12 Standund deviation of the Market E 1. What is the expected retum on a portfolio comprised of S60o00 of Suck A and S4000 of Sock B7 2. Whe is the Stnderd deviation of this portidio? 3. Does it make sense to combine these two in this way? Pease explain why. 4 What is the ocoefficient of variation for Stock A? What is the coefficient of variation for Stock B?Q3/ The probability that a consumer will rate a new antipollution device for cars What are the probabilities that it will rate the device (a) very poor, poor, fair, or good; (b) good, very good, or excellent? Rate Poor Fair Very good Excellent Very poor Good Probability 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.32 0.21 0.11
- 6. A risk-averse individual is offered a choice between a gamble that pays $1000 with probability of 25% and $100 with probability of 75% or a pay- ment of $325. (a) Which gamble would he choose? (b) What is the payment was $3205. Probability help me uhuhuhuhDelta Airlines quotes a flight time of 2 hours, 5 minutes for its flights from Cincinnati to Tampa. Suppose we believe that actual flight times are uniformly distributed between 2 hours and 2 hours, 20 minutes. a. Which of the following graphs accurately represents the probability density function for flight time in minutes? f(x) T 0.15+ 1.