Guy Fieri has purchased a significant plot of land in Northwest Ohio for his newest venture: FlavorTownship. This hub for mind-boggling flavor and entertainment is a strictly for-profit operation. Guy would like to keep Flavor Township open all year-round, but due to Ohio weather the following are the probabilities of when it will be open: - 30% chance it is open 300 days a year - 55% chance it is open 325 days a year - 15% chance it is open 350 days a year
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- The demand for a product of Carolina Industries varies greatly from month to month. The probability distribution in the following table, based on the past two years of data, shows the company's monthly demand. Unit Demand Probability 300 400 500 600 0.20 0.30 0.35 0.15 (a) If the company bases monthly orders on the expected value of the monthly demand, what should Carolina's monthly order quantity be for this product? (b) Assume that each unit demanded generates $70 in revenue and that each unit ordered costs $50. How much will the company gain or lose in a month (indoitars) if it places an order based on your answer to part (a) and the actual demand for the item is 300 units?The Enrico Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract. The company estimates thatthe project would cost $8 million today. The company estimates that once drilled, the oil willgenerate positive net cash flow of $4 million a year for the next 4 years. The company recognizes,however, that if it waits 2 years, it could cost $9 million, but there is a 90% chance that the nextcash flow will be $4.2 million and there is a 10% chance that the net cash flow will be $2.2 milliona year for 4 years. Assume that all cash flows are discounted at 10%. Required:i. If the company opts to drill today, what is the project’s NPV? ii. Evaluate whether it would be worthwhile to wait 2 years before deciding whether todrill?Answer for (b) & (c) Please Airtight Manufacturing produces plastic cases that utility companies buy to protect electronic components on utility poles from weather damage. (a) The protective case currently used by utility companies has a 0.045 probability of cracking or breaking in any given year. When a protective case cracks or breaks, the utility company incurs a $800 expense to replace the case. What is the expected value of the utility company’s repair costs per protective case? Show your work. (b) Airtight has recently developed a stronger material for its protective case. The use of this stronger material reduces the case’s probability of cracking or breaking, and serves as a differentiating factor for estimating this product’s VTC. Use the product-needs matrix described in the course to classify this differentiating factor. What type of product characteristic is it? What type of customer need does it satisfy? Justify your answers. (c) If this stronger material enables…
- Determine whether or not to stock a large supply of steel. There is uncertainty in the price of steel. Based on past history the following data are available Price (future) Prob (Price) PW if stocked PW if not stocked High 0.3 100000 0 Medium 0.5 -10000 0 Low 0.2 -50000 0 What is the probability that stocking steel will result in a negative present worth (PW)?Problem 1 Synergy Company sells co-amoxiclav antibiotic. The probability distribution of the demand for co-amoxiclav antibiotic is as follows: Estimated Sales in Units 120 units 210 units 300 units Probability 0.12 0.18 0.22 The estimated demand for co-amoxiclav antibiotics this coming month using the expected value approach is 1. How much is Expected Value? S =15. A city mayor decides to construct a new bridge over the major river in the town. The estimated life of such a structure will be 20 years. There is a 70% probability that the total initial costs (consulting fees and construction) will be $800,000 and a 30% probability that such costs would be $1 million. There is 100% probability that the maintenance costs would be $30,000 every 5 years. How much money should the city borrow now in order to carry out the entire project including maintenance? The interest rate is 5%.
- Tasha is planning to invest in a farming project in 2022, but has a reservation given the different forecast (declined (D),the average (A) and takeoff (T)of the economy. She uses the following to guide her decision making. (i) there is 25% chance she will invest if there is a forecast of declined (ii) there is a 75% chance she will invest if there is a forecast of average growth and (iii) there is a 55% chance of investing if there is a forecast that economy will takeoff. Tashanna believes that for 2022 there is a 20% chance of decline and a 40% chance of average growth and a 40% chance the economy will take off. Based on these probabilities what is the chance that Tattiana will invest in the farming project if the stated forecast hold?The owner of a ski resort is considering installing a new ski lift that will cost $900,000. Expenses for operating andmaintaining the lift are estimated to be $1,500 per day when operating. The U.S. Weather Service estimates thatthere is a 60% probability of 80 days of skiing weather per year, a 30% probability of 100 days per year, and a 10% probability of 120 days per year. The operators of the resort estimate that during the first 80 days of adequate snow in a season, an average of 500 people will use the lift each day, at a fee of $10 each. If 20 additional days are available, the lift will be used by only 400 people per day during the extra period; and if 20 more days of skiing are available, only 300 people per day will use the lift during those days. The owners wish to recover any invested capital within five years and want at least a 25% per year rate of return before taxes. Based on a before-tax analysis, should the lift be installed?Venus Flycatcher Company sells exotic plants and is trying to decide which of two hybrid plants to introduce into their product line. Probabilities Hybrid/Demand Hybrid 1 Hybrid 2 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 .2 $3,000 Low -10,000 -15,000 .3 Demand Medium 10,000 10,000 .5 High What is the most that Venus would pay for a highly reliable demand forecast? 30,000 35,000
- Three alternative insulations are being considered for installation on a machine part. After the initial installation, if the insulation fails in any future year, it is replaced by an identical one at a cost lower than the initial cost. The costs and probabilities of failure in any year are given in the table below. Insulation thickness 2 inches 3 inches 6 inches Initial installation cost $900 $1,200 $1,800 Probability of failure in any given year 26.7% 14.4% 6.32% Replacement cost anytime insulation fails in future $600 $800 $1,200 If the analysis period is infinte (i.e, N = infinity), calculate the expected EUAC of the 2-inch insulation. The MARR is 11% per year. OA. $414 O B. $259 O C. $104 O D. $155A 40-year-old man in the U.S. has a 0.244% risk of dying during the next year. An insurance company charges $300 per year for a life-insurance policy that pays a $100,000 death benefit. What is the expected value for the person buying the insurance? Round your answer to the nearest dollar. Expected Value: S-55 Question Help: Video Submit Question Question 5 x for the year Message instructor Based on historical data, an insurance company estimates that a particular customer has a 2.6% likelihood of having an accident in the next year, with the average insurance payout being $2700. If the company charges this customer an annual premium of $180, what is the company's expected value of this insurance policy? S Question Help: Message instructorThe probabilities that the life of a machine will vary from 6 to 12 years are given in the table below. The expected life of the machine is ____________. Life , Years 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Probability 0.10 0.15 0.25 0.15 0.20 0.10 0.05