11 12 0.45 0.30 22 24 25 0.25 0.35 0.30 5 /unit /unit /unit 0.25 profit per unit for the base-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios. e using most likely costs se Profit = $ Profit = $ Profit = $ e ta simulation model to estimate the mean profit per unit. (Use at least 1,000 trials.) he simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios?
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- A large company in the communication and publishing industry has quantified the relationshipbetween the price of one of its products and the demand for this product as Price = 150 − 0.01× Demand for an annual printing of this particular product. The fixed costs per year (i.e., perprinting) = RM50,000 and the variable cost per unit= RM40. a) Analyze what is the maximum profit that can be achieved if the maximum expected demand is 6,000 units per year. b) Compute what is the unit price at this point of optimal demand.(c) The price of a 14 oz cup of coffee in Sunshine cafés is a random variable C with an expected value of $3.00 and a standard deviation of $1. At any given shop, the price doesn't vary, but it varies independently across shops. Tomorrow morning, you plan to buy two 14 oz cups of coffee from the same shop while your friend plans on buying two from two different shops. (i) How much do you expect to spend on coffee tomorrow and with what standard deviation? (ii) How much do you expect your friend to spend and with what standard deviation? (iii) Who do you think has a better idea and why?A company invests on selling computer units worth Php 32,000.00. The probability of maintaining this price throughout the year is 65% while that of less or more than 10% the expected are 15% and 20%, (a) what is the probability that the selling price for that year is more than the expected price? (А) 0.65 (в) 0.85 0.2 D) 0.8 (E) 0.15 (F) 0.25 G) 1
- Dependent Variable: Pass Experience Male Malex Experience Constant Probit Logit (1) (2) 0.031 0.040 (0.009) (0.016) 0.712 (0.126) Linear Probability (3) 0.006 (0.002) 1.059 0.774 (0.221) (0.034) Probit (4) -0.333 (0.161) 1.282 (0.124) Logit (5) -0.622 (0.303) 2.197 (0.242) Linear Probability (6) -0.071 (0.034) 0.900 (0.022) Probit (7) 0.041 (0.156) -0.074 (0.259) -0.015 (0.019) 0.806 (0.200) Problem 1. (~SW 11.2) Using the results of column (2): (a) Does the probability of passing the test depend on Experience? Explain. (b) Matthew has 10 years of driving experience. What is the probability that he will pass the test? (c) Christopher is a new driver (zero years of experience). What is the probability that he will pass the test? (d) Sketch the predicted probabilities from the probit and logit regressions in column (1) and (2) for values of Experience between 0 and 60. Are the probit and logit models similar?Explain probability and nonprobability samplingtechniques.The Kwik Klean car wash loses $250 on rainy days and gains $1200 on non rainy days. If the probability of rain is 0.13, what is the expected net profit?
- ABC Inc. must make a decision on its current capacity for next year. Estimated profits (in $000s) based on next year's demand are shown in the table below. Alternative Expand Subcontract Do nothing Refer to the information above. Assume that ABC Inc. has hired a marketing research firm that provided additional information regarding next year's demand. Suppose that the probabilities of low and high demand are assessed as follows: P(Low) = 0.4 and P(High) = 0.6. What is the expected value under certainty? 160 0 Next Year's Demand Low High $100 $200 $50 $120 $40 $50 140 200The following table shows the total sales, in thousands, since a new game was brought to market. Month 0 2 4 9 8 10 12 14 Sales 0 2.2 5.4 9.5 19.1 27.2 32.9 35.4 (a) Plot this data and determine the point of diminishing returns. Enter the closest value in the table. The point of diminishing returns occurs i months after the game is introduced. (b) Predict total possible sales of this game, using the point of diminishing returns from the table. Total sales≈ iSt. John's Brewery (SJB) is getting ready for a busy tourist season. SJB wants to either increase production or produce the same amount as last year, depending on the demand level for the coming season. SJB estimates the probabilities for high, medium and low demands as 0.32, 0.31, and 0.37 respectively, on the basis of the number of tourists forecasted by the local recreational bureau. If SJB increases production, the expected profits corresponding to high, medium and low demands are $800,000, $400,000 and $100,000 respectively. If SJB does not increase production, the expected profits are $550,000, $325,000 and $200,000 respectively. (NOTE: Text answers are case sensitive and the value of different parts of this question is indicated in square brackets [*/*]) Construct a decision tree for SJB. On the basis of the EV, what should SJB do? What is the expected value of increasing production? What is the expected value of not increasing production? Should SJB increase production (enter…
- Build model The sales and profits for a new product are uncertain. The marketing department has predicted that sales might be *) as high as 10,000 units per year with a probability of 10%. *) The most likely value is 7000 units annually. *) The pessimistic value is estimated to be 5000 units annually with a probability of 20%. Manufacturing and marketing together have estimated the net profit as follows: *) the most likely unit profit to be $32. *) The pessimistic unit profit of $24 has a probability of 0.3, and *) the optimistic unit profit of $38 has a probability of 0.2. The company is planning for a 5 year horizon and uses 14% as their interest rate. a) Construct the joint probability function, assuming that profit value and sales amount are independent. b) Determine the PW of the profits for the pessimistic, most likely and optimistic scenarios. c) Compute…XZ company is selling product A, according to the company when the price of product A is $28, the expected demand is 50,000 units per week. However, when the price is $58, only 20,000 units are demanded per week. Required What is the demand function for product A?The cost C(Q) of producing a quantity Q of widgets to satisfy demand isC(Q) = 4000+20Q, but the quantity demanded is random. If the mean and standarddeviation of demand are 500 and 200, respectively, then what are the mean andstandard deviation of costs?