As the manager of Smith Construction, you need to make a decision on the number of homes to build in a new residential area where you are the only builder. Unfortunately, you must build the homes before you learn how strong demand is for homes in this large neighborhood. There is a 70 percent chance of low demand and a 30 percent chance of high demand. The corresponding (inverse) demand functions for these two scenarios are P = 300,000 -450Q and P = 700,000 -325Q, respectively. Your cost function is C(Q) = 135,000 + 172,500Q. How many new homes should you build, and what profits can you expect?
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- A firm plans to expand its product line and faces a dilemma whether to build a small or largefacility to produce new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the NPV afterdeducting for building costs will be four hundred thousand pesos. If demand is high, the firm caneither maintain the small facility or expand it. Expansion would have an NPV of four hundredfifty pesos while maintaining the small facility would have an NPV of fifty thousand pesos. If alarge facility is built and demand is high, the estimated NPV would be eight hundred thousandpesos. If demand turns out to be low, the NPV would be a loss of ten thousand. The probabilitythat the demand is high is estimated to be sixty percent.a. Analyze using a decision tree.b. Compute for EVPI.c. Determine the range over which each alternative would be best in terms of the valuewhen demand is low.5. Shift-in-charge Nazar Al Rushdy: Nazar is pessimistic about the market price. What is your guidance for Nazar? The decision to employ decision trees in crucial situations has been taken by Salem Al Harthi, the plant manager. The table below presents data on demand for a duration of 6 hours along with their respective probabilities. The first row of the table provides the probability of demand for the initial three hours when a leak occurs, denoted in parentheses. Subsequently, the following three rows indicate the probabilities of high, medium, and low demand for the succeeding three hours. To illustrate, if the initial 3-hour market price was low, the probabilities of high demand, medium demand, and low demand in the next three hours are 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5, respectively. Market price High Market price Medium Initial 3-hrs (0.2) Initial 3-hrs (0.5) Market price Low Initial 3-hrs (0.3) High demand (next (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) 3 hrs) Medium demand (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (next 3 hours) Low demand…. If you examine the decision tree in Figure 9.12 (orany other decision trees from PrecisionTree), you willsee two numbers (in blue font) to the right of each endnode. The bottom number is the combined monetaryvalue from following the corresponding path throughthe tree. The top number is the probability that thispath will be followed, given that the best strategy isused. With this in mind, explain (1) how the positiveprobabilities following the end nodes are calculated,(2) why some of the probabilities following the endnodes are 0, and (3) why the sum of the probabilitiesfollowing the end nodes is necessarily 1.
- A large company in the communication and publishing industry hs quantified the relationship between the price of one of its products and the demand for this product as Price = 160 -0.01 xDemand for an annual printing of this particular product. The foxed costs per year (ie. per printing) = $4T 000 and the variable cost per unit = $35. What is the maximum profit that can be achieved? What is the unit price at this point of optimal demand? Demand is not expected to be more than 7,000 units per year. The maximum profit that can be achieved is S. (Round to the nearest dolar.) The unit price at the point of optimal demand is S per unit (Round to the nearest cent)The owner of Tastee Cookies needs to decide whether to lease a small, medium, or large new retail outlet. She estimates that monthly profits will vary with demand for her cookies as follows: SIZE OFOUTLET DEMAND LOW HIGH Small $ 1,000 1,000 Medium 500 2,500 Large 0 3,000 For what range of probability that demand will be high, will she decide to lease the medium facility?Eunice, the industry analyst of H&M, wants to determine the propensity of Major Clothingcompanies toward risk. She was able to determine the utility distribution of H&M, Uniqloand Dickies. For H&M, If the expected payoff of a venture is a loss of 125,000, the utilityvalue is 0.00, if a loss of 75,000, the utility value is .2, if breakeven, the utility value is .5,if gain of 75,000 .8 and if gain of 125,000 utility value is 1. For Uniqlo, if loss of 125,000utility value is 0, if loss of 75,000 utility value is .1, breakeven is .4, if a gain of 75,000,utility value is .7 and if gain of 125,000 utility value is 1. For Dickies, if loss of 125,000,utility value is 0, if loss of 75,000, utility value is .3 breakeven is .6, if gain of 75,000, utilityvalue is .9 and gain of 125,000, utility value is 1. What is the propensity to risk of the threeinternet companies? Explain your graph.
- A physician purchases a particular vaccine on Monday of each week. The vaccine diust be used within the week following, otherwise it becomes worthless. The vaccine costss $ 2 per dose and the physician charges $ .4 per dose. In the past 50 weeks, the physician has administered the vaccine in the following quantities : Doses per Week Number of Weeks 20 25 15 50 25 60 On the basis of EMV, find how many doses the physician must purchase each week to maximise his profits ?Alocal toy manufacturer is using a production line that runs 8 hours per day and produces a toy that requires a total of 7 tasks to be performed. The daily demand is 100 toysTimes of the tasks are 273, 2.01, 2.13, 2.0, 2.61, 2.71 and 2.95 minutes for A, B C, D, E , and Grespectively. However, due to the nature of the product there are precedence rules that must be observed. Such that Task A does not need any predecessors: task B requires task A to be completed. To start task Deach require task B to be completedTask must be completed prior to stating task E. Task F needs both task D and task E to be completed. Finally, task G can start only once task Fiscompleted.Given we apply the most remaining tasks rule for balancing the assembly line, with broken according to longest task time firstWhat will the estimated idle time in minutes for THIRD workstation?You are currently a worker earning $60,000 per year but are considering becoming an entrepreneur. You will not switch unless you earn an accounting profit that is on average at least as great as your current Salary. You look into opening a small grocery store. Suppose that the store has annual cost of $150,000 for labor, $60,000 for rent and $30,000 for equipment. There is one-half probability that revenues will be $20,000 and a half probability that revenue will be $420,000 a. WHat is your accounting and economic profit? b. Will you quit your job and try your hand at being an entrepreneur? c. Suppose the government imposes a 25 percent tax on accounting profits: this tax is only levied if a firm is earning positive accounting profits. What will your after tax accounting profit be in the low revenue case?
- You are currently a worker earning $60,000 per year but are considering becoming an entrepreneur. You will not switch unless you earn an accounting profit that is on average at least as great as your current Salary. You look into opening a small grocery store. Suppose that the store has annual cost of $150,000 for labor, $60,000 for rent and $30,000 for equipment. There is one-half probability that revenues will be $20,000 and a half probability that revenue will be $420,000 a. In the low revenue Situation, what will your accounting profit or loss be? b. In the high revenue situation, what will your accounting profit or loss be? c. On average, how much do you expect your revenue to be?When playing roulette at a casino, a gambler is trying to decide whether to bet $10 on the number 30 or to bet $10 that the outcome is any one of the three possibilities 00, 0, or 1. 3 The gambler knows that the expected value of the $10 bet for a single number is - 53¢. For the $10 bet that the outcome is 00, 0, or 1, there is a probability of 38 of making a net profit of $30 and a probability of losing $10. 35 38 a. Find the expected value for the $10 bet that the outcome is 00, 0, or 1. b. Which bet is better: a $10 bet on the number 30 or a $10 bet that the outcome is any one of the numbers 00, 0, or 1? Why? a. The expected value is $. (Round to the nearest cent as needed.) b. Since the expected value of the bet on the number 30 is C than the expected value for the bet that the outcome is 00, 0, or 1, the bet on is better.You are currently a worker earning $60,000 per year but are considering becoming an entrepreneur. You will not switch unless you earn an accounting profit that is on average at least as great as your current Salary. You look into opening a small grocery store. Suppose that the store has annual cost of $150,000 for labor, $60,000 for rent and $30,000 for equipment. There is one-half probability that revenues will be $20,000 and a half probability that revenue will be $420,000 a. In the high revenue case? what will your average after tax Accounting profit be? hat about your average after tax economic profit? will you Want to quit your job and try your hand at being an entrepreneur? other things equal, does the imposition of the 25 percent profit tax increase or decrease the supply of entrepreneurship in the economy?